Myanmar is set to conduct elections on Sunday, a move that has drawn widespread international condemnation. The military junta, which seized power in a coup in 2021, has regained some momentum against opposition forces, largely due to shifting support from China. Analysts suggest that this backing has significantly altered the dynamics of a conflict that has persisted for over five years.

Military Regain and Election Controversy
The Myanmar military has made territorial gains against various opposition groups, a development that has surprised many observers who previously questioned its stability. The upcoming elections, viewed as a façade to legitimize military rule, are occurring amidst ongoing civil unrest. Despite the junta's efforts to consolidate power, substantial portions of the country remain beyond its control, with fierce resistance from ethnic armed groups.

China's Strategic Role
China's involvement in Myanmar has been pivotal in bolstering the military regime. Jason Tower, a senior expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, emphasizes that Beijing's support has been instrumental in shifting the balance of power. China has employed border closures to pressure ethnic armed groups into ceasefires and has provided military support, including advanced drone technologies. This assistance has allowed the junta to reclaim territory and stabilize its position, albeit temporarily.

Shifting Alliances
Despite its support for the military, China maintains relationships with various ethnic armed groups opposing the junta. Initially, Beijing's response to the coup was subdued, but as the conflict escalated and economic instability grew, its stance evolved. The rise of pro-democracy factions has complicated China's approach, as it seeks to balance its investments in Myanmar with the need for stability along its border.

Impact of Organized Crime
The surge in organized crime, particularly in border areas, has also influenced China's strategy. Frustrated by the proliferation of scams and violence, China tacitly approved offensives by northern ethnic armed groups against the junta in late 2023. This shift has caught the military off guard, resulting in significant territorial losses and further complicating the conflict landscape.

Wrap-up
As Myanmar heads towards elections under a military regime bolstered by Chinese support, the future remains uncertain. The ongoing civil war and the junta's inability to control large areas of the country highlight the fragility of the situation. China's dual approach of supporting the military while engaging with opposition groups underscores the complexity of Myanmar's political crisis and its implications for regional stability.

Sources
theguardian.com

@hoju-korean.com Editorial Team